Record Low Delinquencies, “Home Affordability Nears All-Time Low”

by Calculated Risk on 5/02/2022 11:37:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for March: “Home Affordability Nears All-Time Low”

A brief excerpt:

Note: Black Knights data on affordability goes back to 1996. This doesn’t include housing in the 1980 period when 30-year mortgage rates peaked at over 18%.

And on the payment to income ratio:
30 year Mortgage 10 year Treasury

• The least affordable American housing has ever been was back in July 2006, when it took 34.1% of median income to make the monthly P&I payment on the average-priced home bought with 20% down

• As of April 21, that payment-to-income ratio has now climbed all the way to 32.5%, within just 1.6 points of the prior record

• A rise of just 50 more basis points (BPS) in rates or a 5% rise in home prices, would push affordability to its worst level on record, and they are already up 200 BPS and 5.9% respectively since the start of 2022

• 37 markets – representing nearly a third of the country – are now the least affordable they’ve ever been

As Black Knight has noted, there were “affordability products” with low teaser rates available during the housing bubble. Excluding the bubble years, this is the worst affordability since at least the early ‘90s, maybe ’80s.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/


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