ATP Finals 2023 Round Robin: Updates and Permutations
The end of the round-robin stages at the 2023 ATP finals is nearing, and there are numerous permutations regarding which players can progress into the weekend’s knockout stages.
Djokovic, Sinner and Rune are the three live players in the green group, while Alcaraz and Zverev both have chances to join Medvedev who has already qualified.
Day three started with a damp squib as Stefanos Tsitsipas was forced to retire after three games against Holger Rune due to a back injury.
Thankfully, things picked up dramatically in the evening session as Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic put on a high-quality show, with the Italian prevailing in three hours to put himself in the driving seat at the top of his group.
On day four, Carlos Alcaraz got his first win of the finals and, as a result, ended Andrey Rublev’s chances of making it out of Red Group.
Daniil Medvedev then became the first man to qualify for the semi-finals with a straight-sets win over Sascha Zverev. The rest will have to wait until Friday to determine who makes it, and you can see the various scenarios below.
ATP Finals 2023 Round Robin Results
Results
| Winner | Loser | Scoreline | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Day 1 | Jannik Sinner | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 6-4 6-4 |
| Novak Djokovic | Holger Rune | 7-6(4) 6-7(1) 6-3 | |
| Day 2 | Alexander Zverev | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-7(3), 6-3, 6-4 |
| Daniil Medvedev | Andrey Rublev | 6-4 6-2 | |
| Day 3 | Holger Rune | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 2-1 (RET) |
| Jannik Sinner | Novak Djokovic | 7-5, 6-7(5), 7-6(2) | |
| Day 4 | Carlos Alcaraz | Andrey Rublev | 7-5 6-2 |
| Daniil Medvedev | Alexander Zverev | 7-6(7) 6-4 |
Standings So Far
Green Group
| Position | Player | Match W/L | Set W/L | Set W% | Game W/L | Game W% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jannik Sinner | 2-0 | 4-1 | 80% | 32-26 | 55.17% |
| 2 | Novak Djokovic | 1-1 | 3-3 | 50.00% | 37-36 | 50.68% |
| 3 | Holger Rune | 1-1 | 3-2 | 60.00% | 16-19 | 45.71% |
| 4 | Hubert Hurkacz | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0% | 0-0 | 0% |
| 4 | Stefanos Tstisipas | 0-1 | 0-2 | 0% | 8-12 | 40% |
Red Group
| Position | Player | Match W/L | Set W/L | Set W% | Game W/L | Game W% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniil Medvedev | 2-0 | 4-1 | 80% | 32-26 | 55.17% |
| 2 | Alexander Zverev | 1-1 | 3-3 | 40.00% | 28-27 | 50.91% |
| 3 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1-1 | 3-2 | 60.00% | 27-25 | 51.92% |
| 4 | Andrey Rublev | 0-2 | 0-4 | 0% | 13-25 | 34.21% |
Permutations
Red Group
- Regardless of the score, if Djokovic defeats Hurkacz and Sinner defeats Rune, then Sinner wins the group, and Djokovic qualifies 2nd.
- Regardless of the score, if Hurkacz defeats Djokovic and Sinner defeats Rune, then Sinner wins the group, and Djokovic qualifies 2nd.
- Regardless of the score, if Hurkacz defeats Djokovic and Rune defeats Sinner, then Rune wins the group, and Sinner qualifies 2nd.
- If Djokovic defeats Hurkacz in 2 sets and Rune defeats Sinner in 2 sets, then Rune wins the group, and Djokovic qualifies 2nd.
- If Djokovic defeats Hurkacz in 2 sets and Rune defeats Sinner in 3 sets, then Hurkacz is eliminated, and the order of remaining players is determined by % of games won.
- If Djokovic defeats Hurkacz in 3 sets and Rune defeats Sinner in 2 sets, then Rune wins the group, and Sinner qualifies 2nd.
- If Djokovic defeats Hurkacz in 3 sets and Rune defeats Sinner in 3 sets, then Rune wins the group, and Sinner qualifies 2nd.
Green Group
- Regardless of the score, if Alcaraz defeats Medvedev and Rublev defeats Zverev, then Alcaraz wins the group, and Medvedev qualifies 2nd.
- Regardless of the score, if Medvedev defeats Alcaraz and Rublev defeats Zverev, then Medvedev wins the group, and Alcaraz qualifies 2nd.
- Regardless of the score, if Medvedev defeats Alcaraz and Zverev defeats Rublev, then Medvedev wins the group, and Zverev qualifies 2nd.
- If Alcaraz defeats Medvedev in 2 sets and Zverev defeats Rublev in 2 sets, then Alcaraz wins the group, and Medvedev qualifies 2nd.
- If Alcaraz defeats Medvedev in 2 sets and Zverev defeats Rublev in 3 sets, then Alcaraz wins the group, and Medvedev qualifies 2nd.
- If Alcaraz defeats Medvedev in 3 sets and Zverev defeats Rublev in 2 sets, then Medvedev wins the group, and Alcaraz qualifies 2nd.
- If Alcaraz defeats Medvedev in 3 sets and Zverev defeats Rublev in 3 sets, then Medvedev wins the group, and Alcaraz qualifies 2nd.
Tsitipas Retires Against Rune
Day three in Turin got off to the worst possible start for the fans as Stefanos Tsitsipas retired after just three games against Holger Rune with a back problem.
Tsitsipas cut short two of his pre-tournament practices in Turin, which led to plenty of speculation about his participation. However, he completed the match against Sinner to allay those fears and told the press he was okay.
That wasn’t the case, though, as after just three games and a visit from the ATP Doctor, he was forced to throw in the towel against Rune, who notches up his first win to boost his chances of making the knockout stages.
The main talking point was whether Tsitsipas should have taken to the court given his known back problem, but thankfully, Hubert Hurkacz and Taylor Fritz, who are in Turin as reserves, stepped in to play an exhibition set to at least offer the fans something in exchange for the cash they’d spent on tickets.
Hurkacz is now scheduled to play Thursday’s final singles round rubber after Tsitsipas subsequently withdrew from the tournament.
I think Tsitsipas was right to play after his doctor gave him the go-ahead. He managed to play an okay level against Sinner and likely felt the pain was manageable enough to give him a shot vs Rune.
These guys are competitors who want to win as many matches as possible, and anyone who thinks he did it for the money ($82,375) when he’s won $4,612,266 this year alone isn’t thinking very logically.
You can see his disappointment in his press conference after feeling the injury worsen during the warm-up, and he’s proven over several years on tour that he’s not a quitter.
Match Stats
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | Holger Rune | |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 1 | 1 |
| Double Faults | 0 | 1 |
| 1st Serve Percentage | 75% | 67% |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 83% (5/6) | 60% (6/10) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 0% (0/2) | 80% (4/5) |
| Break Points Saved | 0% (0/0) | 100% (2/2) |
| 1st Return Points Won | 40% (4/10) | 17% (1/6) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 20% (1/5) | 100% (2/2) |
| Break Points Converted | 0% (0/2) | 0% (0/0) |
| Winners | 5 | 5 |
| Unforced Errors | 1 | 1 |
| Net Points Won | 100% (3/3) | 33% (1/3) |
| Max Points In Row | 3 | 5 |
| Service Points Won | 63% (5/8) | 67% (10/15) |
| Return Points Won | 33% (5/15) | 38% (3/8) |
| Total Points Won | 43% (10/23) | 57% (13/23) |
| Max Games In Row | 1 | 1 |
| Service Games Won | 100% (1/1) | 100% (2/2) |
| Return Games Won | 0% (0/2) | 0% (0/1) |
| Total Games Won | 33% (1/3) | 67% (2/3) |
Press Conference
Sinner Snatches Victory Over Djokovic
Jannik Sinner delighted the Italian crowd by bagging his first win over Novak Djokovic in four attempts with a 7-5, 6-7(5), 7-6(2) victory on Tuesday evening.
The court at the Pala Alpitour has a Court Pace Index of 42, making it the fastest of the season, which suits Sinner’s full-tilt hitting.
With a favourable surface and fervent crowd support, Sinner used both to his advantage, pegging Djokovic back with aggressive striking, especially in the third set tiebreak, which he rattled through 7-2.
The first set was exceptionally close, with Djokovic not taking advantage of a second serve when the scoreboard was finely poised at 5-5, 15-30, and then broken from 40-0 up when serving to force a tie break.
In true Djokovic style, he hung tough in the second set with some stellar serving to take the tiebreak, and when he broke back from 2-4 in the decider (his only break of serve in the match), it looked like he might complete a successful comeback.
However, Sinner stuck to his guns and pulled the trigger whenever he could, rattling through the tiebreak with five consecutive points to build an unassailable lead.
It’s part of the process. I feel that I’m a little bit more confident in certain moments in a match. I was brave and intelligent in important moments, especially the third set. I felt like we were both serving really well, so there were not so many exchanges, but when the exchanges were played, we both played really well. That was a really high-level match. Sinner on his win over Djokovic.
Match Stats
| Novak Djokovic | Jannik Sinner | |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 20 | 15 |
| Double Faults | 1 | 2 |
| 1st Serve Percentage | 63% | 60% |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 81% (51/63) | 79% (56/71) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 59% (22/37) | 55% (26/47) |
| Break Points Saved | 33% (1/3) | 67% (2/3) |
| 1st Return Points Won | 21% (15/71) | 19% (12/63) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 45% (21/47) | 41% (15/37) |
| Break Points Converted | 33% (1/3) | 67% (2/3) |
| Winners | 46 | 37 |
| Unforced Errors | 14 | 11 |
| Net Points Won | 68% (21/31) | 58% (7/12) |
| Max Points In Row | 6 | 10 |
| Service Points Won | 73% (73/100) | 69% (82/118) |
| Return Points Won | 31% (36/118) | 27% (27/100) |
| Total Points Won | 50% (109/218) | 50% (109/218) |
| Max Games In Row | 2 | 3 |
| Service Games Won | 89% (16/18) | 94% (17/18) |
| Return Games Won | 6% (1/18) | 11% (2/18) |
| Total Games Won | 47% (17/36) | 53% (19/36) |
Highlights
Alcaraz Ends Rublev Hopes
Carlos Alcaraz recorded his first-ever win at the ATP finals with a much improved performance over an out-of-sorts Andrey Rublev, winning 7-5 6-2 in 74 minutes.
Both players needed to bounce back after opening round-robin defeats, but whereas Alcaraz came out firing, Rublev looked like his mind was still on the Medvedev defeat from two days ago.
The Spaniard, the youngest player in the field, played a much more aggressive brand of tennis than the first match and dictated all the play against Rublev, winning 94% of points behind his first serve en route to victory.
It was a totally different match and level from me. This is the level I must play if I want to give myself a chance in this amazing tournament. Yesterday was a good day for me in practice to find the level I needed to show today, and I think I did pretty well. I am very happy with my level.” I need to relax. It is really, really fast the court. I need to hit first. You need to be more aggressive than your opponent. I think that is key if you want to have chances in this tournament. Alcaraz on his improved performance.
Match Stats
| Carlos Alcaraz | Andrey Rublev | |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 5 | 4 |
| Double Faults | 0 | 2 |
| 1st Serve Percentage | 72% | 74% |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 94% (32/34) | 62% (28/45) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 62% (8/13) | 50% (8/16) |
| Break Points Saved | 0% (0/0) | 50% (3/6) |
| 1st Return Points Won | 38% (17/45) | 6% (2/34) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 50% (8/16) | 38% (5/13) |
| Break Points Converted | 50% (3/6) | 0% (0/0) |
| Winners | 19 | 14 |
| Unforced Errors | 2 | 7 |
| Net Points Won | 100% (10/10) | 43% (3/7) |
| Max Points In Row | 12 | 4 |
| Service Points Won | 85% (40/47) | 59% (36/61) |
| Return Points Won | 41% (25/61) | 15% (7/47) |
| Total Points Won | 60% (65/108) | 40% (43/108) |
| Max Games In Row | 5 | 1 |
| Service Games Won | 100% (10/10) | 70% (7/10) |
| Return Games Won | 30% (3/10) | 0% (0/10) |
| Total Games Won | 65% (13/20) | 35% (7/20) |
Highlights
Medvedev Makes Semi-Finals
Danii Medvedev made it two wins from two thanks to a 7-6(7), 6-4 win over Sascha Zverev in Wednesday’s night session.
The win sees him make the semi-finals, regardless of what happens in Friday’s final round rubber matches.
With the pair having split their previous four encounters at the ATP finals, Medvedev started strongly, breaking for 2-0 only to see his lead erased as Zverev picked up his game toward the end of the set.
That meant a tie break, and Zverev quickly found himself up 4-1. He then proceeded to miss a sitter volley that would have likely given him an unassailable lead.
Medvedev then made a gaff of his own at 5-5 by blazing an overhead long, which gave Zverev a set point on serve, but a fluffed half-court forehand hit the middle of the net.
That was the last chance Zverev would see as Medvedev captured the breaker 9-7, firing a down-the-line forehand to force the error at the net.
Set two appeared like it would be more tiebreak action with both men taking care of their service games, but after saving a break point en route to holding for 5-4, Meddy locked down to break for the match.
It was a very tough match mentally. I started very well, I was playing well. He was kind of not there yet, but at one moment he stepped up his game and at this moment, for whatever reason, I started playing a little bit worse for a short period of time. I’m happy that I managed to regroup and play better at the end of the first set. The end of both sets was very tight… In the tie-break he had set point on his serve. I’m happy because this year I might have lost some matches like this. I’m happy to be able to win. Medvedev on his straight sets win over Zverev.
Match Stats
| Daniil Medvedev | Alexander Zverev | |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 4 | 9 |
| Double Faults | 2 | 0 |
| 1st Serve Percentage | 73% | 76% |
| 1st Serve Points Won | 78% (40/51) | 67% (34/51) |
| 2nd Serve Points Won | 53% (10/19) | 63% (10/16) |
| Break Points Saved | 75% (3/4) | 0% (0/2) |
| 1st Return Points Won | 33% (17/51) | 22% (11/51) |
| 2nd Return Points Won | 38% (6/16) | 47% (9/19) |
| Break Points Converted | 100% (2/2) | 25% (1/4) |
| Winners | 18 | 26 |
| Unforced Errors | 6 | 8 |
| Net Points Won | 67% (10/15) | 58% (18/31) |
| Max Points In Row | 7 | 5 |
| Service Points Won | 71% (50/70) | 66% (44/67) |
| Return Points Won | 34% (23/67) | 29% (20/70) |
| Total Points Won | 53% (73/137) | 47% (64/137) |
| Max Games In Row | 3 | 3 |
| Service Games Won | 91% (10/11) | 82% (9/11) |
| Return Games Won | 18% (2/11) | 9% (1/11) |
| Total Games Won | 55% (12/22) | 45% (10/22) |
Highlights
2023 ATP Finals Day 5 and 6 Schedule
Order of Play – Thursday, 16th November
Afternoon Session – Starts at noon.
- (1) Ivan Dodig/Austin Krajicek vs. (4) Santiago Gonzalez/Edouard Roger-Vasselin
- Not Before 2:30 p.m. – (1) Novak Djokovic vs Hubert Hurkacz (9)
Evening Session – Not Before 6:30 p.m.
- (5) Marcel Granollers/Horacio Zeballos vs. (7) Maximo Gonzalez/Andres Molteni
- Not Before 9 p.m. – (4) Jannik Sinner vs. (8) Holger Rune
Order of Play – Friday, 17th November
Afternoon Session – Starts at noon.
- (2) Wesley Koolhof/Neal Skupski vs. vs. (3) Rohan Bopanna/Matthew Ebden
- Not Before 2:30 p.m. – (2) Carlos Alcaraz vs. (3) Daniil Medvedev
Evening Session – Not Before 6:30 p.m.
- (6) Rajeev Ram/Joe Salisbury vs. (8) Rinky Hijikata/Jason Kubler
- Not Before 9 p.m. – (5) Andrey Rublev vs. (7) Alexander Zverev
Which four players do you think will make the semi-finals? Let me know in the comments.
