Why Now and Will It Work?

Almost immediately after Hamas’ terror attack on Israel on 7 October last year, Hezbollah joined the hostilities against Israel and kept up desultory rocket attacks on northern Israeli cities and settlements, while the Israelis targeted Hezbollah commanders in air attacks and drone strikes. But the fighting remained limited to a narrow strip of territory in northern Israel and southern Lebanon. But 60,000 Israelis were displaced from northern Israel on account of Hezbollah’s attacks.

The Israelis then stepped up their air attacks in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah facilities and commanders, without bothering too much about civilians who were collateral casualties. By the end of the month, they began to attack targets in Beirut and on 27 September, they succeeded in killing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in an air attack, along with Abbas Nilforoushan, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards’ deputy commander.

At the beginning of October, Israel escalated the war further by launching a ground invasion of southern Lebanon, and at the same time, conducting widespread air attacks all across the country aimed at destroying Hezbollah.

The big question is why Israel agreed to a ceasefire at this stage.

The answer was provided by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who released a pre-recorded speech at the cabinet meeting that approved the ceasefire, which said that he supports a ceasefire in Lebanon for three reasons:

• It enables Israel to focus its energies on dealing with the threat from Iran

• It will enable the country to replenish its arsenal, presumably through US supplies

• It was to isolate Hamas in Gaza which Netanyahu sees as the primary adversary

A key role has been played by the US in getting the ceasefire going. It was worked out by the shuttle diplomacy of its envoy Amos Hochstein beginning in August this year. This required considerable effort on his part, as well as that of the US State Department. Difficulties in persuading the two sides to arrive at an agreement even led to the American envoy threatening to walk out of the talks.