(News Focus) Trump might eye N.K. diplomacy not tightly linked to denuclearization, but conducive to stability: experts


By Song Sang-ho and Kang Byeong-cheol

WASHINGTON, Jan. 24 (Yonhap) — U.S. President Donald Trump might angle for diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un that might not be tightly linked to the North’s denuclearization, but could dial down tensions on the Korean Peninsula and beyond, experts said Friday, as he has expressed an intent to reengage with the dynastic ruler.

Experts anticipate that meaningful engagement between the U.S. and the North could emerge after Russia’s war in Ukraine ends, given Trump’s focus on ending the war and Pyongyang’s current reliance on Moscow to meet its economic, financial, security and other needs.

Appearing in a Fox News interview broadcast Thursday, Trump said he will reach out to Kim again, raising the prospects of Trump seeking to revive his personal diplomacy with the reclusive leader that led to three in-person meetings between them during his first term.

U.S. President Donald Trump sits in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington on Jan. 23, 2025, as he signs executive orders, in this photo released by Reuters. (Yonhap)

U.S. President Donald Trump sits in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington on Jan. 23, 2025, as he signs executive orders, in this photo released by Reuters. (Yonhap)

“Trump is undoubtedly seeking to engage Kim Jong-un. His comments this week only provide further indication of this,” Rob Rapson, a retired U.S. diplomat who formerly served as charge d’affaires at the U.S. Embassy in Seoul, told Yonhap News Agency via email.

“Moreover, he’s assembling a team at the NSC (National Security Council) and State (Department) that’s well capable of following through on his ambitions for doing some sort of ‘deal’ with North Korea. (It is) unclear what exactly Trump’s agenda would look like, but it may not be tightly tied to ‘denuclearization,'” he added.

Speculation had persisted that once back in the Oval Office, Trump would rekindle his “bromance” with Kim given that on the stump, he repeatedly boasted about his personal ties with Kim, stressing he “got along very well” with Kim.

Trump’s remark on the North has been the clearest sign yet of his desire for an outreach to Kim. Trump and Kim had three face-to-face meetings — the first summit in Singapore in June 2018, the no-deal Hanoi summit in February 2019 and a meeting in the inter-Korean border village of Panmunjom in June 2019.

“There have been several signals from President Trump over the last few years indicating that he wants to meet and get along with Kim Jong-un, and he wants to reach a deal with North Korea that reduces tensions,” Frank Aum, a former senior Pentagon advisor on Korea, said.

“Recent comments from Trump, Secretary Rubio, and Secretary-nominee Hegseth also suggest that they view North Korea as a de facto ‘nuclear power’ and need to still reduce tensions within this context. This seems to imply a potential deal where North Korea might be able to keep its nuclear weapons in the near and medium term.”

On Monday, Trump called North Korea a “nuclear power,” a term that U.S. officials have mostly refrained from openly using as it could be construed as Washington’s recognition of Pyongyang’s nuclear program — something the North wants to legitimize its military status. Trump’s Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth also used that term.

Trump’s use of the term sounded alarm bells in South Korea, a key U.S. ally that seeks close policy coordination with Washington to achieve the long-term goal of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula at a time when Pyongyang has been doubling down on its nuclear program.

Bruce Bennett, a senior defense analyst at RAND Corp., raised the possibility that Trump’s nuclear power label for the North may have been a “purposeful” concession to Kim to encourage the wayward ruler to come to the negotiating table.

“Such recognition is something that Kim has very much wanted and the U.S. government has previously been unwilling to offer,” he said. “But I think it is likely that Kim will want more, and then we will have to see what Trump is prepared to offer.”

This AFP file photo shows U.S. President Donald Trump (R) shaking hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un after signing a joint statement at the Capella Hotel on Sentosa Island in Singapore on June 12, 2018. (Yonhap)

This AFP file photo shows U.S. President Donald Trump (R) shaking hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un after signing a joint statement at the Capella Hotel on Sentosa Island in Singapore on June 12, 2018. (Yonhap)

In Seoul, concerns have lingered over the possibility that Trump will seek an arms reduction deal with Pyongyang — primarily aimed at ratcheting down tensions and promoting stability — rather than pursuing the ultimate goal of the North’s denuclearization, an elusive yet crucial objective for Seoul given its proximity to the northern neighbor.

Experts forecast that Trump could explore realistic options attainable in the short-term first, should he start engaging with Kim.

“It is very hard for U.S. politicians to admit complete failure of past efforts like the denuclearization of North Korea. Therefore, it is unlikely that the U.S. will simply renounce denuclearization, instead shifting it to a long-term objective,” Bennett said.

“But any negotiations between the U.S. and North Korea will more likely take the form of seeking a freeze on certain elements of North Korea’s nuclear weapon production. This is not a bad thing because unless such freezes are accomplished, North Korea appears to be pushing towards a nuclear weapon force of hundreds of nuclear weapons — a highly destabilizing outcome.”

Even if Trump resumes diplomacy with Pyongyang, a major concern for Seoul is the possibility that it could be left out of the loop, particularly during a time of political uncertainty caused by now-impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol’s botched martial law bid last month.

“There is a possibility Trump could ‘sideline/bypass’ the ROK, especially given the Yoon administration’s very hawkish views towards North Korea and extreme aversion to any meaningful engagement,” Rapson said. ROK is short for South Korea’s official name, the Republic of Korea.

“Effective diplomacy by Seoul will be essential to avoid this scenario.”

A more puzzling question remains over whether Kim would accede to any diplomatic feelers from Trump when the North relies on Russia for food, fuel, security assurances and other forms of support.

Harry Kazianis, the president of the Rogue States Project, a security think tank, and owner of 19FortyFive, a defense and national security journal, said that Kim might not respond to dialogue overture immediately, but would pore over “every word and letter” to understand Trump’s intent.

“Trump knows that dialogue with North Korea won’t be easy as the Kim family is making billions of dollars from the Ukraine war and does not need to compromise with the U.S. or anyone at the moment. However, if that war were to end, the money and assistance from Russia would dry up rather quickly,” Kazianis said.

“That could mean any dialogue Trump opens up now with North Korea could pay off months or even years from now. You could even see a Trump visit to Pyongyang — his ‘Nixon goes to China’ moment,” he added, referring to U.S. President Richard Nixon’s trip to China in 1972 — a symbolic event for Sino-U.S. rapprochement.

This photo, taken on June 30, 2019, shows then U.S. President Donald Trump (L) shaking hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at the inter-Korean border truce village of Panmunjom. (Yonhap)

This photo, taken on June 30, 2019, shows then U.S. President Donald Trump (L) shaking hands with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at the inter-Korean border truce village of Panmunjom. (Yonhap)

Regarding the question of when Washington and Pyongyang could kickstart substantive diplomacy for meaningful progress, analysts predicted that it might emerge when the war in Ukraine draws to an end.

“The war in Ukraine has to be over and Kim needs to feel the financial pain. Then, we could seem something really historic,” Kazianis said.

Patrick Cronin, chair for Asia-Pacific Security at the Washington-based Hudson Institute, pointed out that a priority of the Trump administration at the moment is negotiating an end to the war in Ukraine.

“While there is an intense desire for direct dialogue with Kim Jong-un, North Korean troops will have to withdraw from the war before there can be progress,” Cronin said. “Back-channel communications are likely to be slow to develop.”

Andrew Yeo, the SK-Korea Foundation chair at the Brookings Institution’s Center for East Asia Policy Studies, said that Trump appears more eager to reach out to Kim than thought.

“I had assumed Trump at some point might try to reach out to Kim, but not until addressing other issues like the Ukraine War and more likely later in his administration,” he said. “But it seems Trump is more eager to reengage (with) Kim than I anticipated.”

Trump’s interest in dialogue with the North appears to be evidenced by his personnel choices.

Earlier this month, Trump picked William Harrison — an aide who was involved in planning the Singapore and Hanoi summits with the North Korean leader during his first term — as an assistant to the president and deputy chief of staff for operations.

Last month, he named former Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell as his presidential envoy for special missions that he said covers “some of the hottest spots” around the world, including North Korea, while tapping Alex Wong, who was engaged in working-level nuclear talks with the North, as his principal deputy national security adviser.

sshluck@yna.co.kr
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