Jaffar Express Hijacking Exposes Pakistan’s Failing Strategy in Balochistan – The Diplomat

The hijacking of the Jaffar Express in Balochistan has once again drawn attention to the region’s long-running insurgency. For decades, the Baloch people have resisted Pakistan’s military control, demanding self-determination, an end to enforced disappearances, and a stop to resource exploitation, yet their pleas have been ignored. The state’s continual dismissal of Baloch grievances has led some to take up arms, joining militant groups like the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), which was behind the hijacking this week.

This standoff was not an isolated incident but a clear sign of Pakistan’s failing policies in Balochistan. If the international community continues to ignore this conflict, the violence will only escalate.

The Hijacking 

On March 11, BLA fighters derailed the Jaffar Express, a passenger train traveling from Quetta to Peshawar, in the Mashkaf region of Bolan, Balochistan. The fighters took control of the train and captured security personnel on board. The BLA stated that the attack was a direct response to Pakistan’s decades of oppression in Balochistan.

According to the BLA statement, civilians – including women, children, and Baloch passengers – were released, while over 200 Pakistani military and intelligence personnel were held as prisoners of war. The group stated that these captives would be exchanged for Baloch political prisoners, giving a 48-hour ultimatum.

Pakistan refused to negotiate. Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi condemned the attack as an attempt to destabilize the country and vowed to crush the insurgency. The military responded with airstrikes and ground operations to reclaim the train.

The Jaffar Express hijacking is not the first time the BLA has taken hostages and attempted to negotiate a prisoner exchange. Pakistan, however, has consistently refused to engage in any such dialogue.

In July 2022, the BLA captured Colonel Laeq Naik of the Pakistan Army in Ziarat and offered to exchange him for Baloch detainees. Instead of negotiating, Pakistan launched a military operation, leading to Naik’s execution. 

This approach has done little to contain the insurgency. Instead, it has emboldened the BLA, leading to a series of increasingly bold and coordinated attacks.

Pakistan’s Victory Claim 

According to the military’s media wing, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), the Jaffar Express clearance operation was a complete success. On March 12, Lt. Gen. Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, speaking on Dunya News, described a swift and precise counterterrorism mission, stating, “On March 11, terrorists targeted a railroad track around 1 pm, blew it up, and stopped the Jaffar Express. The train had 440 passengers. The terrorists used hostages, including women and children, as human shields. The recovery operation was immediately started.”

Pakistan’s military said all hostages were rescued, but at a cost: 21 passengers were killed by the militants, along with four Pakistani soldiers. Pakistan claimed it had “successfully eliminated all 33 terrorists” in the clearance operation. 

Conflicting accounts suggest heavier military losses. Reports from Quetta indicated that at least 200 coffins were sent for Pakistani soldiers killed in the attack. The BLA also announced it had executed 50 hostages due to Pakistan’s refusal to negotiate, which would indicate a higher death toll among the passengers. 

Beyond the conflicting death counts, the BLA claimed to still control the Jaffar Express, giving Pakistan 24 hours to agree to a prisoner exchange. The BLA warned of further killings if military operations continued.

The BLA’s Counter-Statement

A day after the ISPR’s statement, the BLA dismissed Pakistan’s claims as propaganda. “The claims made by the Pakistani army spokesperson are a failed attempt to cover up lies and defeat. The ground reality is that the battle continues on multiple fronts, and the enemy is suffering heavy casualties and military losses,” said BLA spokesperson Jeeyand Baloch in a statement on March 13.

Contrary to ISPR’s assertion that all militants had been eliminated, the BLA insisted that its fighters were still holding their ground. The group also accused the Pakistani military of abandoning its own personnel instead of negotiating for their safe release.

“The individuals whom the Pakistani state and its propaganda machinery claim to have ‘recovered’ were in fact released by the Baloch Liberation Army itself under its war ethics and international norms,” the statement added.

Challenging Pakistan’s claims, the BLA called for independent verification, stating, “If the occupying army truly claims victory, then it should allow independent journalists and impartial sources access to the war-torn areas so that the world can witness the real losses suffered by the Pakistani army.”

Increasing BLA Attacks and Their Impact

Over the years, the BLA has expanded its operations from isolated guerrilla strikes to large-scale military offensives. The attack on the Gwadar Pearl Continental Hotel in 2019 was an early warning, targeting Chinese officials and security forces involved in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). While no Chinese officials were harmed, the Pakistani military said four hotel employees and a Pakistani soldier were killed. The BLA claimed to have “killed more than 40 soldiers” in a battle that lasted “for more than 24 hours.”

A year later, the Karachi Stock Exchange attack demonstrated the BLA’s ability to strike economic symbols deep inside Pakistan.

By 2022, the BLA escalated its tactics. The Karachi University suicide bombing, carried out by the group’s first female suicide bomber, Shari Baloch, specifically targeted Chinese nationals, signaling the BLA’s shift toward more aggressive retaliation against foreign involvement in Balochistan. Later that year, the Nushki and Panjgur military base assaults lasted over 72 hours, with the BLA claiming to have killed over 100 Pakistani soldiers, proving that the insurgency could directly challenge the military in prolonged battles.

In 2024, the BLA moved toward full-scale offensives. In Operation Dara-e-Bolan, 385 fighters launched a coordinated attack, securing a 70 km radius, including Machh town and the NH-65 highway – a key military supply route. The BLA claimed to have killed 78 Pakistani soldiers while holding strategic control for several hours.

This was followed by Operation Herof, the largest insurgent offensive in Balochistan’s history. Over two days, the BLA attacked 44 locations across 13 districts, targeting military convoys, gas pipelines, railway tracks, and a paramilitary base in Bela. The group reported 130 Pakistani military casualties while successfully holding control over key positions for several hours.

Each of these attacks was met with military crackdowns. Instead of addressing the root causes of the insurgency, Islamabad’s approach has reinforced the cycle of violence, deepening the conflict rather than resolving it.

A Conflict Rooted in Systemic Oppression

Balochistan has been a center of resistance since its forced annexation by Pakistan in 1948. Despite being the country’s largest and most resource-rich province, Balochistan remains Pakistan’s poorest and most heavily militarized region. Baloch grievances stem from decades of political marginalization, economic exploitation, and human rights abuses.

CPEC, touted as a major development initiative, has further exacerbated tensions. Many Baloch see CPEC as a means of exploiting their land while providing no benefits to local communities. The province’s vast natural resources, gas, coal, and gold, are extracted to fuel Pakistan’s economy, yet Balochistan remains deprived of basic infrastructure, education, and healthcare.

For years, peaceful activists have attempted to raise these issues, but their voices have been met with repression. The Baloch Yakjehti Committee and leaders like Dr. Mahrang Baloch have led protests against enforced disappearances, only to be targeted themselves. When peaceful avenues for resistance are shut down, armed struggle becomes an inevitable response.

Pakistan, however, refuses to recognize the insurgency as a political issue. Instead, it dismisses it as “foreign-sponsored terrorism.” The military has repeatedly claimed that India’s intelligence agency, RAW, is behind the Baloch resistance, an assertion that serves to justify its continued military operations in the region.

In the Jaffar Express hijacking, the ISPR explicitly blamed Afghanistan for orchestrating the attack. “Intelligence reports have unequivocally confirmed that the attack was orchestrated and directed by terrorist ring leaders operating from Afghanistan, who were in direct communication with the terrorists throughout the incident,” Pakistan’s military claimed.

This is a familiar narrative. By blaming Afghanistan or India for supporting terrorism, Pakistan deflects from its failure to address Balochistan’s longstanding grievances, portraying the Baloch insurgency as a foreign conspiracy rather than a domestic resistance movement.

Pakistan’s Military-centric Strategy is Failing

In addition to the battle to retake the Jaffar Express, the ISPR ominously stated that the military was conducting a “sanitization operation” in the area to find “abettors” of the attack. For the people of Balochistan, who have faced decades of arbitrary disappearances and arrests on flimsy charges of militancy, the implications are obvious.

The international community must recognize that Pakistan’s actions in Balochistan are not counterterrorism; they are a form of collective punishment against an entire population.

Pakistan’s reliance on military force to suppress the Baloch insurgency has only fueled further resistance. The Jaffar Express attack highlights how ineffective this strategy has become. Despite decades of counterinsurgency campaigns, enforced disappearances, and targeted killings, the Baloch movement continues to intensify.

The state’s approach, denying the existence of legitimate grievances and treating the conflict solely as a security issue, has backfired. Each military operation only deepens resentment, ensuring that the next generation of Baloch fighters is even more determined than the last.

Pakistan’s inability to contain the insurgency has led to growing internal criticism. A former chief minister of Balochistan, Akhtar Mengal, publicly declared that the government has lost control of the province, stating, “There is not a single inch of Balochistan left where the government can claim authority. They have lost this war – completely and irreversibly.”

Mengal’s statement reflects a broader reality – the Pakistani state’s grip on Balochistan is slipping. Despite repeated military campaigns, the insurgency remains resilient, signaling that Pakistan’s counterinsurgency approach has failed.

The Global Silence on Balochistan and What Comes Next

The lack of international attention on Balochistan is striking. While Western governments support beleaguered ethnic groups in Xinjiang and Kurdistan, they remain silent on Pakistan’s repression of the Baloch. Pakistan has leveraged its alliances, particularly with China, to shield itself from scrutiny. Its military ties with the West, framed under counterterrorism cooperation, have allowed it to continue human rights violations unchecked.

But ignoring Balochistan will not make the conflict disappear. The insurgency is growing more sophisticated and bold. If the global community continues to look away, future attacks could escalate, targeting infrastructure, foreign investments, and security installations. 

Human rights organizations, international media, and policymakers must hold Pakistan accountable. The thousands of forcibly disappeared Baloch deserve justice, and their right to self-determination must be acknowledged. The longer the world remains silent, the more the violence will spiral.

The hijacking of the Jaffar Express signals that the conflict in Balochistan is reaching a dangerous new phase. The Pakistani state is losing control, and its refusal to address the root causes of the insurgency ensures continued resistance. As Mengal put it, “To the federal government, to the political parties, to the judiciary, to the establishment – you have brought Balochistan to the brink of destruction with your own hands.”

Pakistan has a choice: continue repression, leading to further instability, or seek a political solution. However, history suggests Islamabad will not engage in dialogue unless pressure is applied. For the international community, this is a moment of reckoning. If global actors fail to address the crisis now, they will inevitably face the consequences later.