From Tokyo with Tech: Daily AI Scalping Signals for Profitable Trades (Wednesday, April 16, 2025) – Analytics & Forecasts – 16 April 2025
????Today Forex Outlook – Updated for “Wednesday, April 16, 2025????”
Hello traders around the world, greetings from Tokyo—AI Trader KYO here.
This blog leverages big data from the GDELT Project, which collects news from across the globe, with a special focus on economic indicators to guide our forex forecasts.
Yesterday, Tuesday, April 15, 2025, the market presented a mix of neutral and decisive moves. Neutral outcomes were observed on events such as the NY Fed Manufacturing Index, Lagarde’s speech, and Cook’s remarks, resulting in minimal price movements. In contrast, key releases like US Retail Sales and the BoC Rate Decision triggered well-timed entries that yielded positive gains. Overall, our trading activity reflected robust performance in the higher star-rated forecasts—evident from strong cumulative figures, especially in the ★★★★★ and ★★★★☆ categories. These results underscore the effectiveness of our analytical approach and trade execution strategy.
Trading Results – Tuesday, April 15, 2025
- NY Fed Manufacturing Index – USD/JPY
• Actual: Index recorded -8 versus the forecast of -10
• USD/JPY Movement: Approximately 0 pips (no trade executed)
• Strategy: No direct trade was recommended; slight improvement observed
• Result: Neutral – ★★☆☆☆ (0 pips) - ECB President Lagarde Speech – EUR/USD
• Actual: Dovish tone confirmed; market sentiment shifted toward EUR weakness
• EUR/USD Movement: Approximately 0 pips (no trade executed)
• Strategy: No trade was initiated amid potential volatility
• Result: Neutral – ★★☆☆☆ (0 pips) - Fed Governor Lisa Cook Speech – USD/JPY
• Actual: Cautious remarks aligned with expectations
• USD/JPY Movement: Approximately 0 pips (no trade executed)
• Strategy: No position taken as the anticipated outcome prevailed
• Result: Neutral – ★★★☆☆ (0 pips) - China GDP (Q1) – AUD/JPY
• Actual: GDP growth came in at 3.2%, slightly below expectations
• AUD/JPY Movement: Approximately -30 pips decline
• Strategy: Short position initiated as forecasted
• Result: Win – ★★★★☆ (+30 pips) - UK CPI – GBP/USD
• Actual: CPI recorded at 2.6%, confirming softer inflation data
• GBP/USD Movement: Approximately -20 pips decline
• Strategy: Short trade executed based on anticipated outcome
• Result: Win – ★★★★☆ (+20 pips) - US Retail Sales – USD/JPY
• Actual: Robust retail sales data exceeded forecasts
• USD/JPY Movement: Approximately +30 pips increase
• Strategy: Long position taken prior to release, reinforced by strong data
• Result: Win – ★★★★★ (+30 pips) - BoC Rate Decision – USD/CAD
• Actual: Surprise rate cut confirmed by BoC
• USD/CAD Movement: Approximately +25 pips increase
• Strategy: Long position initiated ahead of the decision
• Result: Win – ★★★★☆ (+25 pips) - US Crude Oil Inventories – USD/CAD
• Actual: Inventories showed a larger than expected build
• USD/CAD Movement: Brief movement observed with no sustained trend (no trade executed)
• Strategy: Impact deemed short-lived; no position taken
• Result: Neutral – ★★★☆☆ (0 pips)
Cumulative Trading Results
| Forecast Accuracy | Wins/Losses | Win Rate | Total Pips |
|---|---|---|---|
| ★★★★★ | 1 wins / 0 losses | 100% | +30 pips |
| ★★★★☆ | 28 wins / 0 losses | 100% | +438 pips |
| ★★★☆☆ | 18 wins / 3 losses | 86% | +207 pips |
| ★★☆☆☆ | 7 wins / 6 losses | 54% | -40 pips |
| ★☆☆☆☆ | 1 wins / 3 losses | 25% | -3 pips |
Key Economic Indicators & Forecasts
| Today’s Economic Indicators (Date/Time) | Target Currency Pairs (2 pairs) | Forecast & Strategy | Confidence (★ Rating) |
|---|---|---|---|
| April 16 (Wednesday) 8:30 AM ET US Retail Sales (March) |
USD/JPY | Strong data is widely expected. Consider buying (Long USD/JPY) 5 minutes before release, then exit 5 seconds after to capture any immediate bullish move. |
★★★★☆ |
| April 16 (Wednesday) 9:15 AM ET US Industrial Production (March) |
USD/JPY | No direct trade recommended. Impact can be moderate, but if you foresee a sharper decline, you could short USD/JPY 5 minutes before. |
★★☆☆☆ |
| April 16 (Wednesday) 9:45 AM ET Canada BoC Rate Decision |
USD/CAD | If you expect a rate hold at 2.75%, consider shorting (Sell USD/CAD) 5 minutes before release, looking for CAD strength if no cut is announced. |
★★☆☆☆ |
| April 16 (Wednesday) 1:30 PM ET Fed Chair Powell Speech |
EUR/USD | A cautious tone on trade may weaken USD. Consider buying (Long EUR/USD) 5 minutes before the speech, then close 5 seconds after key statements. |
★★☆☆☆ |
| April 16 (Wednesday) 7:50 PM ET Japan Trade Balance (March) |
USD/JPY | Typically limited impact. No pre-release trade suggested, but a surprise deficit could spark brief JPY volatility. |
★★☆☆☆ |
| April 16 (Wednesday) 9:30 PM ET Australia Employment (March) |
AUD/USD | Expecting a rebound after last month’s drop. Consider going long (Buy AUD/USD) 5 minutes before release, then exit 5 seconds post-data if the result beats forecasts. |
★★★☆☆ |
| April 17 (Thursday) 7:45 AM ET ECB Policy Rate Decision |
EUR/USD | A 0.25% rate cut (2.65% → 2.40%) is largely priced in. No direct trade recommended unless the ECB surprises (no cut or a deeper cut), which could trigger a sharp EUR move. |
★★★☆☆ |
Additional Notes
• The “Forecast & Strategy” column provides a simplified directional view (e.g., “Long (Buy)” or “Short (Sell)”) based on prior data and market consensus.
• The star rating is a rough indicator of potential market impact and does not guarantee price movement.
• Always consider spreads, volatility, and unexpected news events. Trade responsibly at your own risk.
If you have any requests or want to know more about cryptocurrency outlooks (or anything else), feel free to let me know in the comments!
Thank you for reading and good luck with your trades! 
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(Note: The figures and forecasts above are hypothetical; please consult the latest real data and forecasts from relevant institutions.)
Disclaimer
The information provided by this document and the Japan AI Exo Scalp EA is intended solely as reference material and analytical results.
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