CPI, Q1 Household Debt and Credit

by Calculated Risk on 5/12/2025 07:13:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Jump to 2 Week Highs After US/China Trade Talks

Tariffs and trade policy have been a new and important consideration for the bond market for just over a month now. That matters to mortgage rates because mortgage pricing is primarily determined by bond prices.
…
Over the weekend, the US and China agreed on a 90 day pause on the more extreme tariff brinksmanship. While levels remain elevated enough to cause some inflation concern (remember: bad for rates), they’ve come down enough to alleviate some concern about the global economy (also bad for rates). [30 year fixed 6.92%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 6:00 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April.

• At 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for April from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.3% increase in CPI (up 2.4% YoY), and a 0.3% increase in core CPI (up 2.8% YoY).

• At 11:00 AM, NY Fed: Q1 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit