We are one month into the college basketball season, and already, the action has upended most of our preseason assumptions. We have surprising contenders and disappointments. We also have teams that haven’t played a lot of high-level competition, so we still have more questions that need to be answered. I have compiled the second bracketology of the season with all the games that have been played so far. The NCAA also released its first net ranking come out yesterday, but take it with a grain of salt since the sample size is small.
We will start at the top and work through some of the key points that led to the shape of this bracket.
The Texas Longhorns’ showing at the Players Era Showcase last week has vaulted them to the number one overall seed. It was most likely that if Texas, UCLA, or South Carolina won the event, they would jump to the top with two big-time wins at the event. The play of Madison Booker and Rori Harmon, along with the Longhorn defense, has led them to the best resume in the country so far.
Connecticut remains undefeated and is the second number one seed. The Huskies have a solid win over Michigan, but the Longhorn resume is just a bit better with their Players Era Showcase win, along with wins over Richmond and James Madison. UCLA edges South Carolina for the third one seed with their wins over Oklahoma, North Carolina, and Tennessee.
When it came down to that final top seed, the math gets tricky. Vanderbilt notched wins over Cal and BYU so far this season. Michigan State topped Clemson, but its resume is otherwise largely undefined. NET loves the Spartans, with them being seventh in the initial rankings. I try not to put too much stock into early NET rankings, but it’s hard to argue against seventh. This just edged Michigan State over Nebraska for the last hosting spot.
The bubble is especially opaque this early on. Villanova picked up a key win over West Virginia on Monday night, which pushed them into the field over Troy, who’s had a strong start to the year for a mid-major program. BYU, Mississippi State, and Auburn all recently suffered their first loss of the season to other Power 5 programs I project to be in the tournament. This puts them in over Illinois, Penn St, and Virginia, who all have losses to a mid-major.
The biggest riser of the bracket so far has been Texas Tech. They went from being in my preseason first four out to a seven seed in this bracket. They have a nice quad 2 win over Mississippi State and two other wins over power four schools. Krista Gerlich is trying to get the Red Raiders to their first-ever tournament during her tenure.
The biggest faller is Duke. The Blue Devils went from a two seed in my preseason bracket to completely out of the field into my next four out group. They have played the toughest schedule of anyone in the country but are a combined 0-5 in games against quad one and two opponents. Kara Lawson gave her team a gauntlet of a schedule, and they haven’t been able to win any key games so far.
Five games will have the greatest impact on the bracket over the next two weeks
North Carolina vs Texas, December 4
Notre Dame vs Ole Miss, December 4
Iowa vs Iowa State, December 10
Oklahoma vs Oklahoma St, December 13
Texas vs Baylor, December 14
Bonus: Mid-major game that will most impact the bracket over the next two weeks
Richmond vs Fairfield, December 7
Bracketology methodology
Here are some basic bracket rules that help influence my bracket:
- The top four seed lines in each region shall be from different conferences unless a conference has more than four teams in the top 16 (making this rule impossible to follow, as is the case with both the SEC and Big 10 in my bracket).
- Teams from the same conference shall not be projected to meet until the Elite Eight if they met three times during the regular season, or the Sweet 16 if they met twice. Because we don’t know what will happen in conference tournaments, I am assuming every conference team will face each other once more than what is on their schedule. I was able to keep league teams away from each other until the Elite Eight, with one exception, which would require an upset win.
- In order to comply with bracket rules, it is acceptable to move a team up or down one seed line. I did not have to move anyone up or down in this bracket.
Bracket Breakdown
Multi-Bid Conferences
SEC: 13
Big Ten: 12
ACC: 8
Big 12: 7
Big East: 2
Last Four In
Villanova
Mississippi St
BYU
Auburn
First Four Out
Troy
Penn St
Illinois
Virginia
Next Four Out
Duke
Seton Hall
Arizona State
Davidson
Next Update: December 16
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