Israel Has Reduced Gaza to Rubble. War With Iran Would be a Whole New Ball Game
Ever since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war, a shadowy proxy conflict has also been occurring between the US and Iran but neither side seems to want an all-out war which would have unpredictable consequences. As a part of this, there have been nearly 200 attacks on US military bases and assets in Syria, Iraq, and Jordan resulting in injuries to dozens of US personnel. The Americans have retaliated strongly, killing over 30 militants through air strikes.
The US maintains some 2500 personnel in dozens of facilities in Iraq, as well as 800 in Syria and some 200 in Jordan. They are there to conduct covert operations against the Islamic State and Iran-backed groups. The Americans also operate from two airbases in Iraq, Al Asad and Al Harir, both of which have faced militant attacks.
As for Iran, it lacks the capacity to take on the US, and its friends like China and Russia are, at best, lukewarm in their support. Iran’s air force uses 1970s vintage US aircraft and its navy is mainly a coastal force. The theocratic regime also has to worry about internal instability that has manifested itself in recent years, and a war at this juncture could well be fatal for it.
As for Israel, it needs to carefully study the lay of the land. There is little doubt that they now view Iran as their primary adversary. But they cannot deal with the huge country all by themselves, especially if Tehran crosses the nuclear threshold.
But current Israeli thinking is probably guided by Netanyahu’s sole aim of somehow staying in power. Projecting a “mortal threat” to Israel aids this project, as indeed, it helps distract global attention from the Gaza war.
(The writer is a Distinguished Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. This is an opinion piece and the views expressed above are the author’s own. The Quint neither endorses nor is responsible for the same.)
